Both teams to score is a market where the winner does not matter: all that counts is whether each team scores at least once. Here is how it works and how to read the probability.
The yes side wins when both teams have scored by the end of regular time: 1-1, 2-1, 3-2 or any other score without a zero. The no side wins on any score with a zero for one team: 0-0, 1-0, 3-0. The match result and the total number of goals do not matter, so yes can win in a heavy favourite's rout as long as the opponent scores a consolation goal.
The model estimates each team's expected goals and the probability that each scores at least once. If the home side scores at least one goal in about 80% of cases and the away side in 65%, the probability of yes is close to the product of the two, about 52%. The exact figure comes from a Poisson distribution over every score. Like any probability estimate, it is an expectation over many matches, not a fact about one.
Yes almost always implies at least two goals, so the market is tightly linked to over 1.5 and partly to over 2.5. The difference is that a total does not care who scored: 3-0 wins over 2.5 but loses both teams to score. When one team is far stronger and the other barely creates chances, the probability of yes drops even when the expected total is high.
Backing yes in a derby or a grudge match on emotion rather than expected goals. Ignoring absences up front: without the main striker a team's scoring probability drops noticeably. Assuming a run of both-teams-to-score matches will continue on its own. Stacking this market into long accumulators, where each leg carries a small edge and the errors multiply.
Probability never guarantees the outcome. These materials are informational and are not financial advice. 18+
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