What the forecast shows
For each match, the model estimates the probabilities of a home win, draw, and away win. Together they total 100% and describe uncertainty before kickoff.
How the forecast works
How the AI calculates match probabilities
We publish probability estimates, record the data available at the time, and preserve the original forecast for later evaluation.
Sources and data snapshot
The current baseline calculates probabilities only from prior match results, weighted by recency and venue. When collection from verified sources is enabled and passes coverage checks, lineups, injuries, suspensions, and news are shown as separate pre-match signals, but do not yet change the percentages.
Calculation and explanation
Probabilities are produced by the forecasting model. The explanation layer is separate; when a language model (LLM) is enabled, it may only explain the stored forecast and verified sources, never set or adjust percentages.
Locking and history
Every version receives a publication time before kickoff. Published probabilities are not rewritten after the result; the match outcome is added beside the original record.
18+
Probability is not a guarantee. Even the most likely outcome may not occur. This material is intended for audiences aged 18 and over.
Results